Will Israel Attack Iran?

     I am of the opinion that Iran's nuclear program is not for peaceful purposes. It is a dictatorial government that used force to put down an uprising from its own people, and despite harsh sanctions, it continues to press on with pursuing its nuclear program. That is not the behavior of a country that is pursuing a peaceful nuclear program. The problem is, what else to do about Iran? Israel sees Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon as a fundamental threat to its existence, so the concern right now is, will or when Israel attack Iran?
     Israel's fear is not that Iran will acquire a nuclear weapon soon, but rather that they will reach a point after which they have secured their nuclear program to the degree that they cannot be stopped. The thing about Iran is that striking it isn't some simple one-strike operation. There isn't one facility and it isn't a simple matter of flying over the border. Striking Iran's nuclear program facilities would mean hitting multiple targets multiple times. Israel would also have to fly through the airspace of countries that would likely not grant it such permission in the first place just to reach Iran. All of this will take a lot of aircraft. They need strike aircraft to carry the weapons to strike Iran's facilities. Then they need fighter planes to protect the strike aircraft. They also need aircraft to jam Iran's air defenses. And because of the distance, they need refueling tankers, which can refuel all of the aircraft so they can fly back to Israel. They then need fighter planes to protect those refueling tankers.
     So the operation alone is a huge risk. Then there are Iran's various ways of retaliating, which could cause all hell in the region to break out. The current American administration does not believe that the Iranians are as close to reaching this point of no return regarding their nuclear program as the Israelis believe. I also think there is an element of politics regarding President Obama's behavior on Iran. Attacking Iran right now could well be political suicide for him. If he decides Iran must be attacked after he is re-elected (assuming he is re-elected), well then yes his poll ratings may tank, but he's already in for his second term (I say political suicide because the American people do not want any more major U.S. military involvements and especially with a country like Iran, where attacking it could result in oil prices skyrocketing where we end up with $5 or higher gasoline for example).
      I believe that as bad an attack on Iran would be, that Iran getting a nuclear weapon is a far greater danger. Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon would result in the following:

1) A likely arms race in the region to acquire nuclear weapons among other nations

2) Iran will be able to threaten closing the Strait of Hormuz. Right now, they can threaten it on paper, but the U.S. Navy could force it back open and if attacked by the Iranians, that would be an act of war, which would give the U.S. the right to attack the Iranian military outright. But with a nuclear-armed Iran, it makes it a whole new ballgame.

3) Iran could possibly attack Israel with a nuclear attack

     I sometimes wonder if the current situation with Iran is akin to the eve of World War II with Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany. Hitler wrote a book saying what he was planning to do; it wasn't a big secret. Iran isn't all that different. The thing is, the world was so terrified of another war, because of World War I having been so recent, that much of Europe deluded itself into thinking Hitler would never start a war. Similarly, it seems many people now are frightened of another major military conflict because of what we just went through with Iraq and are still dealing with in Afghanistan. But in being afraid of this, I wonder if they are deluding themselves into thinking that Iran does not plan to use a nuclear weapon to destroy Israel or that the fears about a nuclear-armed Iran are overblown. Another fear I think is related to how the U.S. was so sure that Saddam Hussein had chemical and biological weapons and then it turned out, he didn't. He did have the ability to start producing such weapons quickly if he wanted, but the actual weapons, he didn't have. It was a major intelligence failure. Now many wonder if we are repeating the same thing with Iran. The kicker is that historically, the U.S. has tended to under-estimate the enemy regarding what weapons it had, rather than to over-estimate it. An example could be the Soviet Union, which developed the largest, most extensive biological weapons program in human history (this done after the United States and the Soviets had signed an agreement not to continue devleoping such weapons).
     Personally, I do not think that the fears about a nuclear-armed Iran are overblown. One thing history has taught us is that a lot of things can seem completely wacky and unrealistic until they actually happen. Terrorists hijacking jetliners and crashing them into major American buildings? Sounds like a plot to a bad made-for-TV action movie. The U.S.financial system almost completely failing? Pure scaremongering. A nuclear powerplant experiencing an actual meltdown? Can't happen. Yet all of these things have happened. Now the thinking seems to be, "Israel getting hit with a nuclear weapon from an aggressive Iran?" Won't happen. Until it does, and then the world will wonder how on Earth it ever let such a horror happen.
     I would hope that in the end, neither Israel or the United States has to attack Iran, but I do hope that if the Israelis go ahead with it, that they are successful. The U.S. will probably be Israel's sole ally if it does that, because the rest of the world, which already tends to view Israel as the problem in the region, is probably going to go berserk if Israel attacks and oil prices skyrocket. Israel could fail and suffer major losses in such an attack, but even if successful, it will likely face heavy criticism globally and retaliation from Iran in various ways.
     I do wonder however if the other countries in the region that do not like Israel, but even moreso do not want Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, might give Israel a pass if it strikes Iran. Or maybe criticize it publicly, while privately liking that it delayed Iran in getting a nuke (if successful). Some have speculated as to whether Saudi Arabia would allow Israel to use its airspace to travel to Iran. The Saudis don't like Israel, but they also don't like Iran (especially considering how Iran recently tried to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States). Iran is infamous for hating the United States and Israel, but being Shia Islam, it also HATES Saudi Arabia, which is Sunni. And Saudi Arabia in return hates Iran. So maybe this could be one of those "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" instances. There is also the added benefit that Saudi Arabia and the United States have fairly decent relations, I'd assume mostly because of oil (we want oil and they like our money), so perhaps this could also aid in the Saudis being willing to allow the Israelis to use their airspace.